The festive season is here. And, for the behavioural scientist, Christmas becomes a real-world lab. Because at this time of year there are plenty of behavioural biases waiting to envelop us all, like softly falling snow.
Let’s take a closer look at some of these (in no particular order of importance, but we’ve numbered them to fit in with the “12” theme) and see what we can do about them …
1. Labour illusion
What it is. Goods and services are considered more trustworthy and of higher value if effort, time and skill have been ploughed into them. Back in 2011, for example, researchers Buell and Norton showed people associated longer website wait times with increased value (which now seems oddly anachronistic now).
Where you might see it. We’ve all seen the ads. Farmers toiling in the rain, factories full of cheerful workers, turkeys being plumped up, presents meticulously wrapped … you get the idea. At this time of year, retailers are keen to show how much effort they put into delivering your perfect Christmas.
What to do about it. Realise that you may be prone to overvalue certain products and services and, dry as it might sound, focus on more objective metrics like quality.
2. Nostalgia effects
What it is. A sentimental longing for times gone by, nostalgia helps us better connect with others and awakens intrapersonal psychological benefits. As such, it’s been called the most potent force in retail and peaks at Christmas.
Where you might see it. Let’s take off our Christmas party hats for a moment and put on our more cynical, brutally-speaking hats: nostalgia can make us spend more money and so you’ll see nostalgia all over the shop (literally) in December.
What to do about it. Trying to recreate the perfect Christmas? Maybe it’s time to step away from the Fortnum and Mason Cardinal Red Crackers. Still feel the same way in a few days time? Maybe you’re not succumbing to nostalgia effects, you just want some really fancy (and really pricey) crackers.
3. Narrative effects and storytelling
What it is. Stories and narratives are inherent to the human experience and help us make sense of the world. When you’re particularly invested in a story your brain releases neurochemical marvels, like oxytocin. This molecule can lead to an array of prosocial behaviours – including splurging on presents. “Like turning on a garden hose and watching the water spray out,” is how neuroeconomist Paul J. Zac vividly puts it.
Where you might see it. You can barely move for storytelling around Christmas. Hope, togetherness, tradition, redemption (we’re looking at you, Mr Scrooge) … Christmas time comes neatly wrapped in various underlying narratives.
What to do about it. Acknowledge that stories are sometimes just that. You could employ critical thinking and detachment is also an option – although, admittedly, we get that this doesn’t sound like too much fun.
4. Distinctiveness
What it is. The gloriously-monikered Hedwig Von Restorff found, in her oft-referenced 1933 study, that when multiple homogenous stimuli are presented, the oddballs stand out. (At least that’s the theory, the reality of what her paper actually suggested is a little more messy.)
Where you might see it. The food, the carols, the strange trees in our homes, the cards plopping through the door, the psychedelic tinsel … Christmas is very much its own, distinct thing. (Christmas even has its own jumpers.)
What to do about it. In the UK at least, there’s little getting away from the most distinct time of the year. If you’re inclined to embrace it, embrace it, it’s only once a year. (Admittedly a time of year that now lasts for about two months.)
5. Nobel edge effects
What it means. Companies that display all the good things they do out in the world are more respected. That respect then leads to positive feelings and repeat business. In one study, for example, participants rated the quality of the wine as higher when they were told that ten percent of the sales revenue were headed to charity.
Where you might see it. Wherever you see a company showcasing their philanthropy, there’s likely to be some noble edge effects attached.
What to do about it. Beware false profits – just because of their social endeavours a company’s products aren’t necessarily better (and are often pricier). That being said, you’ll often hear of a company doing lots of good in the world because they … do lots of good in the world.
6. Scarcity
What it is. Things that are rare, uncommon, or dwindling in availability take on an extra special shine, according to American psychologist and author Robert Cialdini. “Loss is the ultimate form of scarcity,” he says. “When people are reminded of what they stand to lose, they are more motivated to act.”
Where you might see it. Hurry before it’s gone … Last chance to get … If you don’t get this year’s must-buy present you’re going to have a houseful of sulky teenagers – lots of retailers and manufacturers tap into the scarcity bias to buy their products (and buy plenty of column inches in the process).
What to do about it. Challenge on merit, not scarcity (i.e. how good is this thing actually?). Press the pause button. Challenge the premise of the scarcity that’s being presented to you – is that scarcity real or artificial?
7. Reciprocity
What it is. Reciprocity is another one of Robert Cialdini’s six principles of persuasion: people try to repay, in kind, what has been given to them. You get a little, you give a little.
Where you might see it. Reciprocity is everywhere at Christmas. Indeed, one of Cialdini’s cited experiments for reciprocity saw a professor send out Christmas cards to strangers. The result? Cards came pouring in from people who he’d never met – and most didn’t even inquire who he was.
What to do about it. Analyse the intention. Be assertive (if you have to). If that fails, refuse to answer your door. (Or you could realise that spending money on others actually makes you happier – as does carrying out kind acts.)
8. Anchoring
What it is. Our judgements and decision-making are often hooked to anchors: reference points that can then skew subsequent evaluations. First formalised by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman’s in their 1974 ‘Judgment under uncertainty’ paper (since cited 56, 390 times) and famous roulette wheel experiments (which we cover in our course).
Where you might see it. Anchors are everywhere. From the price of turkeys and how much toys cost to those (often inflated) RRPs in the sales.
What to do about it. Realise that anchors are artificial and may falter under interrogation. So, as with a lot of biases, questioning is always a good first step.
9. Peak-end rule
What it is. We tend to remember the most intense moments of an experience (i.e. the peak) and how they end (the, erm, end). It’s far easier for our brains to process and remember a couple of key moments from an experience rather than filtering through the whole experience and averaging it out. (The evidence for this is robust, but qualified.)
Where you might see it. Whenever you look back on Christmases gone by there’s likely some peak-end-ruling going on. It’s easy to look back and be enraptured by the fun board games or excellent lunch but tend to forget the more humdrum bits.
What to do about it. One way of avoiding the peak-end rule is to make sure Christmas is so packed with peaks that the peaks are all it’s possible to remember. Failing that, you could always try focusing on those small, subtle moments that make up Christmas.
10. Optimism bias
What it is. When it comes to predicting what will happen to us tomorrow, next week, or fifty years from now, we overestimate the likelihood of positive events. Or so says neuroscientist Tali Shalot in her barnstorming 2011 paper.
Where you might see it. Is there a time of the year that’s so joyous and full of hope as Christmas, where we can push things to backs of our minds because everything is okay, the stabilisers are off, we should just eat too much and drink too much and buy too much and – woah there, all of a sudden it’s January and your credit card statement is looking a bit threatening. Yep, it’s happened again: you’ve fallen victim to the optimism bias.
What to do about it. Risk analysis, pre mortems, reference class forecasting – there are lots of clever-sounding ways of managing optimism bias. If those don’t work, realise that as humans we’re also prone to negativity bias.
11. Default effects
What it is. When it comes to decision making, we humans are more likely to stick with the status quo, or default, and stick with what we already have. And for many of us, Christmas is what we already have.
Where you might see it. Plenty of Christmas behaviours – from eating turkey and singing carols, to sending cards and giving and receiving presents – are default behaviours. That’s the way things are, goes our internal logic, and so we’re just going to go along with it. But what if, deep down, these things don’t really align with you?
What to do about it. Create your own morals, values, blueprint for life and stick to it. Although one mince pie can’t hurt. (And we really must send Dave and Sandra a card …)
12. Fresh start effect
What it is. Landmark times (birthdays, the beginning of a new week, month, or year) are a good place to inculcate new behaviours, with that lull between Christmas and New Year being when many of us are plotting our better, faster, stronger selves.
Where you might see it. The early days of January. Gyms are packed. Books are being read. Pubs are emptier.
What to do about it. Well, tying our goals to these temporal landmarks increases our chances of sticking to them, so perhaps there’s no need to avoid it. Just be aware that plenty of psychological hoodwinkery (ego depletion and hyperbolic discounting, anyone?) lurking in the background.
Of course, behavioural biases are for life, not just for Christmas.
Biases and heuristics can be wonderful things: they can save us time, brainpower and other resources. Yet they can also be costly. Recognising these inbuilt biases and working with them can help you glide through life (and work) that bit easier.
Want to know more about how BEHAVES can help with some of this?
Drop us a line after the holidays!
